On this episode of Life in the Fast Lane: Andy Lang, Rocky Atkinson, and Steve Merril offer their thoughts on the upcoming 2021 NASCAR season. NASCAR 3 months ago 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Final Four picks, predictions, odds and betting preview View Article.
It all comes down to this. The best drivers in NASCAR will duke it out for the title this weekend, with Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano all still having a shot.
Top NASCAR Betting Picks for the Busch Clash at Daytona by Isaiah Sirois February 8, 2021 The Super Bowl has come and gone, but NASCAR fans know that means the Daytona 500 is fast approaching. Roberts is the nation's premier NASCAR betting expert, and his top pick won the first two races of the 2020 season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Denny Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit Joey Logano at 13-2 odds in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. NASCAR at Bristol expert picks 1. We have to go chalk here with the driver who has the best career rating at the track with a 101.8. Busch also has 1,036 fastest laps run at Bristol.
They won’t be alone, of course. The other drivers will be there to make life difficult on them, and also try to win the 2020 Season Finale 500.
While the main talking point is who ends up being the champion for the entire season, we still want to correctly gauge who will fare the best in this specific event.
I’m here to do that for the DFS side of things.
For what it’s worth, my NASCAR DFS picks were pretty good last week. I loved Joey Logano and he finished third at the Xfinity 500.
Alex Bowman was another favorite of mine and he was a rock solid 6th, while Ty Dillon ended up being an amazing value thanks to a 16th place finish.
Who can we trust in our lineups for this weekend? Let’s find out as I break down my top NASCAR DFS picks for the 2020 Season Finale 500.
I think Kevin Harvick is really sneaky this weekend, just because he’s so expensive, and he can’t win the season championship.
That’s one way to go, but I’ll ride Logano for the second week in a row. He’s been good to me throughout 2020, and he’s got terrific form with 2nd, 1st, 10th, and 3rd place runs over his last four races.
He’s also going for his second NASCAR title, so there’s that.
Good luck to @JoeyLogano and @Team_Penske this weekend at @PhoenixRaceway as the No. 22 team goes for their 2nd #NASCAR Championship! #PartnersPoweringChampions#Championship4pic.twitter.com/wwZx0K6niy
— Shell Racing US (@shellracingus) November 5, 2020
Seriously, Logano is rolling right now, and this hot streak could not be coming at a better time.
Let’s also not forget that he won his last race at this track (FanShield 500) earlier this year. He’s also finished 9th and 10th in his previous two stops here.
The top NASCAR betting websites have Logano tied for second with +450 odds. I love the form, the course history, and his motivation with a shot at the title on the line.
Aric Almirola ($7.8k)
I have gone back to Almirola many times this year. He has zero wins in 2020, but he plays certain courses very well, and he’s consistently in the thick of the majority of his races.
Almirola is nicely priced for this weekend, even though he finished 7th last week, and now owns 21 runs inside the top-10.
He isn’t a real threat to win here, but I love the value and his ability to at least keep things competitive.
My other stud I will pay for is Hamlin. He’s a major discount compared to the likes of Martin Truex Jr., he won here last year, and he’s got a shot at the season title if he does well.
None of that guarantees a thing, but this is still one of the best drivers in the game. He has seven wins on the year, has cracked the top-10 on 22 different occasions, and he’s got something to play for.
That, and it’s somewhat possible he gets a bit overlooked here. Hamlin hasn’t exactly been crushing it lately, after all. He’s been fine, but hasn’t finished better than 9th since winning the YellaWood 500.
Hamling is a real threat to repeat here as he eyes a season championship. You gotta pay up at least twice this week.
- Joey Logano ($10k)
- Aric Almirola ($7.8k)
- Denny Hamlin ($10.3k)
- Ty Dillon ($6k)
- Ryan Newman ($6.5k)
- Alex Bowman ($9k)
I am high on Logano and Hamlin for this race, and Almirola is a fine intermediate option. We’ll have to save cash somewhere, so I’ll go back to the Ty Dillon well, and also roster Ryan Newman.
Neither of these guys are necessarily “safe”, but Dillon ran well last week, and has been fairly competitive at this track. With finishes of 15th, 20th, 15th, and 19th in his last four tries (including an 11th place run in 2017), I like his chances to at least hang around and get us some nice place differential points.
Newman is past his prime, to be sure, but he can still be a pretty competitive driver. He won’t win and he isn’t a realistic threat to even push for the top-10, but he’s finished 18th, 19th, and 22nd over his last three runs.
That’d be good enough for this race, and Newman is another guy who has handled this course well. He’s finished 18th, 12th, 11th, 11th, 20th, 1st, and 12th in his last seven trips to Phoenix Raceway, so he looks to be as good of a value pick as anyone.
I’ll wrap things up with Bowman, who worked out nicely last week, and has been really pushing for his second win of 2020. He’s finished 6th, 5th, 3rd, and 8th over his last four races.
#ICYMI: Axalta driver @AlexBowman88 scored a fourth straight top-10 finish at @MartinsvilleSwy. #Axalta88
— Axalta Racing (@AxaltaRacing) November 2, 2020
Race Recap: https://t.co/MZOOrcr1Nc
He also hasn’t dipped outside of the top-16 in his last 10 tries.
Bowman hasn’t been particularly impressive at Phoenix Raceway, but he finished 14th here earlier this season, and had a career-best 6th place run back in 2016. I think his recent form and price are the main selling points here, of course.
Overall, I like this lineup, but I suggest rolling out several different NASCAR DFS lineups this weekend. Whatever you do, thanks for stopping by, and good luck!
I did kinda see it coming last week but I shrugged it off.
The illusion that Homestead in Miami was owned by Truex, Logano, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick was debunked.
It’s normally for the championship and the past few years, those four drivers have been the only 4 left in the playoffs vying for the title.
I know there are always exceptions but that is the case most of the time.
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I thought picking 4 drivers with 3 at small odds was a good idea in this instance but I don’t think that is a good approach to take in the future.
Denny Hamlin absolutely dominated the race on Sunday and he is atop the betting board this week in Talladega, albeit with quite different odds to win.
That's 4️⃣0️⃣! @dennyhamlin is now tied with @markmartin for 19th on the all-time wins list with 40 career NASCAR Cup Series victories. pic.twitter.com/NL7UBdBNsO
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) June 15, 2020
Let’s look at the contenders for this week’s race and make our predictions for the Geico 500 from Talladega with a little help from our friends at Bovada.
Denny Hamlin: +1000
Wow, 10 to 1 are the lowest betting odds we are going to see for this weekend!
That is because this track is all about speed.
The most similar track to Talladega is Daytona.
Who won Daytona this year?
Denny Hamlin.
Who won last week?
Hamlin.
See where I’m going here?
Sweet redemption at @HomesteadMiami!
Here's how @dennyhamlin pulled away late from @chaseelliott and @Blaney to collect his third ? of the 2020 season. pic.twitter.com/Z1U58e7VMw
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) June 15, 2020
He has won when things have gone his way. You could even call one of his wins lucky but he is the type of guy who creates enough luck to do very well for himself.
He has just one win here but when everything else is even, I would not want any other driver in my car.
He is going to give you everything he has every single time and technically, there hasn’t been a more impressive NASCAR driver over the past calendar year.
Chase Elliott: +1100
Choosing between best friends Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott is really tough.
They have both been on absolute fire lately.
DYK: Following Sunday's P2 effort, @chaseelliott now has six top-five finishes in 2020, his most ever through 12 races in a season. pic.twitter.com/zojSEdal6U
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) June 15, 2020
Chase is just a little bit more of a finisher.
I know he let potentially 3 wins slip away this year but he still has 7 wins over the past 2.5 seasons while Ryan Blaney has just 1.
Blaney is my top 3 guy.
He is top 3 all day but hasn’t quite been able to get over that hump with just 3 victories in his 7 year NASCAR career.
Chase won the Spring race here last year and finished 8th in the Fall.
Elliott was runner-up in the Spring race the year before.
This is not late April but it is the first race of the year at Talladega.
He was runner up last week.
Show Chase some love.
Top 3 Finish Ryan Blaney: +400
Hey, we were just talking about you, kid.
It was nothing bad…
I promise.
You won the last race here less than a year ago.
He started 27th at Daytona this year and finished 2nd.
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3rd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 3rd…
There was a 40th place finish at Bristol thrown in there but these are the results of his last 6 races.
The man is en fuego.
(+400) has a great deal of value.
Matchup – Ricky Stenhouse Jr (-115) vs Clint Bowyer (-115)
Young or old?
Chevrolet or Ford?
Normally, when we are just talking about finishing position and not winning, I tend to lean towards the drivers with more experience.
Ricky has been racing with the Cup Series for 7 years now and has a great record at this track.
- 6 top 10s, 4 top 5s, and a win in his last 10 starts here.
- Clint Bowyer has one top 5 in the past 10 races at Talladega.
Stenhouse beat him soundly in the Fall and by a few cars in the Spring of 2019.
Clint beat him in the previous race by one spot, 2nd and 3rd they were!
The race prior, 5th for Ricky and 31st for Clint.
The potential for crashes is quite high at Dega so don’t go crazy here but I like the value we are getting with Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
In Conclusion
Don’t miss Talladega, guys!
I understand NASCAR has its share of boring ovals. There are a few.
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Dega is just too much fun, though.
Speeds are going to be north of 200 MPH and there will be some crashes.
Every caution does slow down the action but it tightens up the race at the same time.
Ryan Blaney will be my top three pick until further notice and I think youth and recent history trumps craftiness and age in our matchup pick.
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Get your bets in now, team!